ISF-TDF2023 evaluation horizon · 2023M08–2024M07
ISF-TDF2023 Forecast Performance Indicator
Compare MASE and MAPE with seven fixed baseline methods, or validate an official wide forecast CSV against the hidden evaluation period.
This tool is not an assignment submission.
The indicative grade is not your final assignment grade.
Your values and uploaded file are not stored.
Check a forecast
Add one temporary result
Current result
Indicative forecast-performance grade
Enter metrics or upload a valid CSV to place one temporary result on the chart.
Performance map
Baseline position
Baseline Current result
Lower-left is better. The MASE axis uses non-linear grade-banded spacing; values and grade boundaries are unchanged. MAPE remains linear.
MAPE ↓
MASE ↓
Reference methods
Baseline reference table
Lower values indicate stronger forecast performance.
| Method | Role | MASE ↓ | MAPE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naive lag 1 | calibration anchor | 2.3118 | 32.46% |
| Naive lag 12 | diagnostic | 5.0755 | 59.17% |
| Moving average 3 | calibration anchor | 2.5679 | 31.97% |
| Drift | calibration anchor | 2.2748 | 32.54% |
| Trend seasonal | diagnostic | 3.0958 | 91.12% |
| Backtested recent linear | diagnostic | 3.7660 | 51.33% |
| Recent linear 18 | diagnostic | 2.2274 | 30.55% |